Disgusting ad from Katter’s Australian Party.
This blog will discuss the Queensland State Election, to be held on March 24 2012.
Disgusting ad from Katter’s Australian Party.
Based on present polling, Campbell Newman will not be successful in his bid for Ashgrove. I was reluctant to reach this conclusion based upon the Reachtel polls alone given I have problems with their methodology and sample sizes; however, the latest Galaxy poll confirms what Reachtel has been saying all along – the gap has all but closed, and Kate Jones is now in the lead. It is now clear that unless something significant happens in the next two weeks, Mr Newman will not be able to gain the seat of Ashgrove. He simply cannot achieve the 7% swing that is necessary to gain the seat based on current polling.
This is a pretty troubling situation. The LNP seems to be on track to win the election with no clear indication of who the Premier-elect might be if they do. Come March 25, we could very well have an LNP majority in the Parliament with no obvious leader. Mr Newman has promised to cut and run if he does not win Ashgrove, and he has not endorsed any alternative— it would be a competition between Jeff Seeney, Tim Nicholls, and probably a few others as they fight to take the top job while Queensland watches. What an absolute mess.
The best thing that Newman could do if he is not successful is endorse somebody on the night of the election if it is clear that a) he has not won Ashgrove and b) the LNP has won a majority of seats is endorse somebody to take his job as leader. That person would probably be the parliamentary leader, Jeff Seeney. But there are questions over whether the party would even listen to him in those circumstances, and whether Seeney would be able to take a job that he has no mandate to carry out (a mandate is clearly a very important issue to the conservative side of politics – see the federal L/NP.)
The only thing that we can really do to avoid this situation is to vote for Labor on March 24. We don’t want a party with a majority but no clear leader to take power, and we certainly don’t want the situation to be unclear for several weeks following the election. The days following an election are critical, particularly if there is a change of government, and we do not want uncertainty to needlessly occur during that period. There is an easy way to avoid that uncertainty, and the power is in our hands— I intend to use it on March 24.
From the Courier Mail:
THE Liberal National Party has a secret plan to make Campbell Newman Premier if it wins office but he doesn’t win the seat of Ashgrove.
In the LNP it is called Plan C - a blueprint to ensure that he gets a seat in Parliament so he can become Premier.
The LNP Leader has refused to discuss Plan B so far during the campaign - who would be Premier if his party wins government but he fails to win Ashgrove from Labor incumbent Kate Jones.
But The Sunday Mail understands the conservatives have looked at a third option: the LNP winning, Mr Newman losing, with a newly elected LNP member resigning almost immediately and forcing a by-election.
Party insiders said a hit list had been drawn up by LNP bosses of other seats and MPs who could be targeted.
They included Mount Coot-tha (Saxon Rice), Greenslopes (Ian Kaye), Stafford (Chris Davis), Everton (TimMander), Ferny Grove (Dale Shuttleworth) and the electorate where Mr Newman actually lives, Brisbane Central (Robert Cavallucci).
The “sacrificial six” would all be first-time MPs if they won on March 24.
What an absolute mess. It is almost comical that the people of Queensland are taking these people so seriously to the extent that their victory on March 24 is all but a foregone conclusion. We’re going to need a Premier after the election— not an Acting Premier, not somebody who doesn’t hold a seat in the Parliament, and certainly not somebody who is actively plotting to bring down an MP who was just elected by the people in order to advance his or her own career. Some might say “that’s politics,” but I think we can do better than that; and we should do better than that.
Glad to see that the media is finally starting to talk about LNP candidate for Cairns Gavin King. It is just unfortunate that it took a rogue Labor candidate who has been expelled (unlike King) for them to notice. The best disinfectant for Mr King’s grubby comments is sunshine, and the more attention his views receive, the less likely he is to win the seat.
The people of Cairns deserve better.
It is hysterical to allege that the latest round of ads from Qld Labor somehow amount to politicising the floods that occurred in 2011. The Premier showed leadership and courage during that time, and these are qualities that we look for when considering who we want to run our state. It does not mean that the floods are somehow being politicised – it means that one side has the qualities that we needed at exactly the right time, while the other was mostly concerned with profiting and cutting and running as soon as possible to make a grab at the leadership of the LNP. It is a stark contrast and one that people need to see.
Peter Watson and his views have absolutely no place in the Australian Labor Party. He effectively lied to get his endorsement by telling party officials that the comments made under his name were not authored by him; when it became clear that this was false, his resignation was immediately demanded. His backwards and intolerant views which I will not repeat here do not belong in 2012, much less in the party that has always been our social conscience on these issues. It was right to demand his resignation; which is more than can be said for Campbell Newman, who will not repudiate the views of his LNP colleagues like Gavin King, who is a rape apologist, or Fiona Simpson, who encouraged young same-sex attracted people to call Exodus International, which is an organisation that promotes the “ex-gay” theory.
I understand that LNP supporters are defensive on this issue simply because their own party embraces people who hold views that are much more dangerous; an MP encouraging young people to call Exodus Int. by saying their phone number on the record is arguably worse than a teenager making some silly comments on the Internet. But until these views are repudiated by Newman, which can only be achieved through the expulsion of those who hold them, the LNP has absolutely no credibility on the issue, nor do its supporters. It is almost comical to read comments by LNP supporters damning Watson— as they should, while remaining silent on people like Fiona Simpson.
This election is about a lot of important issues; and it is sad that this one will take up valuable time. But it has exposed the blatant hypocrisy of the LNP and its supporters— the ALP sent a message that those views do not belong in the party or in the mainstream. When will the LNP do the same?
Day one! The campaign officially began today when Anna Bligh visited the Governor and asked that Parliament be dissolved. Both leaders then launched their campaigns in the critical seat of Ashgrove. Anna Bligh spoke of her record and the positive things that her Government has done over the past three years, with specific reference to programs like “Mines to Minds.” She referred back to her statement on election night 2009 when she stated that, “Queensland, you can count on me” and claimed that she has fulfilled this promise by making the hard decisions even when they were not politically popular. Her comments however did come across as somewhat scripted; while most speeches of this nature are highly scripted, it does not look good when it is so obvious.
Campbell Newman continued his theme of “it is time.” His comments were sparse on actual policy but heavy on ALP-critical comments, calling them a “dud government” and claiming that ALP candidates are trying to hide from the Labor brand. He was unable to answer questions regarding what might happen if he fails to win the seat of Ashgrove after being pressed on it several times. Newman stated that the number one policy that distinguishes the LNP from Labor is “agriculture,” indicating that he plans to campaign on the popular notion that the Bligh Government has been South-East Queensland focused to the detriment of the other regions. His press conference was awkward at times; at one point, he turned to his team and asked them if they are ready, to which they responded “yes” with eerie synchronisation. It looked odd and was obviously organised beforehand - a moment that they could have gone without.
The day didn’t really go to either party. The campaign has just started and we have five weeks ahead of us: it will be a fight for the ALP, but the LNP might not cruise to the massive victory that it is expecting if it does not deal with substantive policy issues over the campaign period. The notion that the ALP is a “tired government” has gained a lot of traction, but it will only be as successful as it can be if the other side has a fresh vision, and I don’t see that just yet. I see a lot of slogans that will wear thin if used repeatedly over the next five weeks (see: moving forward).
From The Australian:
IF Campbell Newman’s audacious plan to become premier from outside the parliament fails on March 24 but his Liberal National Party still wins office, the man with the most to gain will be Tim Nicholls.
The LNP’s urbane deputy parlimentary leader has harboured ambitions for the top job since he joined the state arena five years ago from Mr Newman’s old stomping ground, Brisbane City Council.
So far, the 48-year-old has refused to follow the lead of his parliamentary leader Jeff Seeney and rule out any leadership ambitions, adding fuel to Labor’s campaign that Mr Newman could lose Ashgrove — held by Labor with a 7.1 per cent margin — and potentially give Queenslanders a premier without a popular mandate.
While the LNP and Mr Newman have steadfastly refused to countenance that possibility, yesterday Mr Seeney acknowledged it was “technically possible”.
I don’t think that we should take Mr. Seeney at his word when he claims that he will not make a move on the leadership if Mr. Newman fails to win Ashgrove. It would be absurd to believe that he does not have leadership ambitions when he has held the post before and was all-too-eager to take it again when the opportunity to came up - this is a man who is fueled by leadership ambition, and so to conclude that he would simply give up the chance to be Premier is absurd.
I think the premise of the story is therefore false: the greatest benefit would be felt by the Labor Party. It would quickly turn into a farce between Seeney, Nicholls, possibly Simpson, and maybe even Newman who could try to get in some other way. The new leader, who would likely emerge bruised and damaged from internal party squabbling, would have no popular mandate and would struggle to rise above that dialogue, much in the same way that Julia Gillard has struggled to sell her message at the federal level. It would be a mess and the only people who could possibly benefit from that would be the Labor Party.
It is all a hypothetical, of course, and despite the ALPs efforts it will be very difficult for them to retain Ashgrove. But even with the possibility being slim, it is not accurate to say that Nicholls would benefit from most from the LNP not immediately having a Premier-elect; it would certainly make him happy, but the greatest benefit would undoubtedly go to the Labor Party.